How ELO is Calculated
Each horse's ELO rating is based on their average finish time — faster horses get higher ratings. The formula:
- Average finish time across all races is the primary signal
- Bayesian adjustment — horses with fewer races are pulled toward their rating group's average (e.g., all 4.5★ horses). This prevents a lucky 1-race horse from topping the leaderboard.
- Converted to ELO scale — 1500 = average horse, every 0.73 seconds faster = +400 ELO
The confidence parameter (k=3) means ~5 races before a horse's rating mostly reflects its own performance. At 50+ races, the adjustment is negligible.